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What business cycle are we currently in?

By Christopher Ramos |

Using the current economic data, it is easy to identify that we are in the expansion phase of the business cycle.

What is a typical business cycle?

The four stages of the economic cycle are also referred to as the business cycle. These four stages are expansion, peak, contraction, and trough. During the expansion phase, the economy experiences relatively rapid growth, interest rates tend to be low, production increases, and inflationary pressures build.

expansion phase
Using the current economic data, it is easy to identify that we are in the expansion phase of the business cycle.

What is the definition of a business cycle?

A business cycle, sometimes called a “trade cycle” or “economic cycle,” refers to a series of stages in the economy as it expands and contracts. Constantly repeating, it is primarily measured by the rise and fall of gross domestic product (GDP) in a country.

What happens at the peak of the business cycle?

The maximum limit of growth is attained. The economic indicators do not grow further and are at their highest. Prices are at their peak. This stage marks the reversal point in the trend of economic growth. Consumers tend to restructure their budgets at this point. The recession is the stage that follows the peak phase.

What are the four phases of the business cycle?

Throughout its life, a business cycle goes through four identifiable stages, known as phases: expansion, peak, contraction, and trough. Expansion: Expansion, considered the “normal” — or at least, the most desirable — state of the economy, is an up period.

How does the business cycle help an investor?

For many investors, the business cycle is a tool used to help build an allocation that will outperform during certain phases of the cycle. By analyzing an economy’s phase in the business cycle the investor hopes to anticipate changes and take positions in sectors that will outperform the rest of the market.